Abstract:Due to decision makers usually face the problem of preference transfer when they make decisions for emergency events in the complex environment, a new method of dynamic emergency decision for the risk type of a large group is proposed. At first, the preference judgment matrix is used to aggregate and cluster the decision makers' preference. Then, the cumulative prospect theory can be used to calculate the overall outlook value of the large group of decision making. Moreover, according to the future state transition chain, the transition matrix of the decision maker's preference is obtained through multi-stage adjustment. Associating preference transfer matrix with the overall outlook value of a large group,the optimal scheme on the current state is given. Finally, the case analysis and comparison verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.