引用本文:王治莹,聂慧芳,赵宏丽.考虑决策者情绪更新机制的多阶段应急决策方法[J].控制与决策,2020,35(2):436-444
【打印本页】   【HTML】   【下载PDF全文】   查看/发表评论  【EndNote】   【RefMan】   【BibTex】 附件
←前一篇|后一篇→ 过刊浏览    高级检索
本文已被:浏览次   下载 本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
分享到: 微信 更多
考虑决策者情绪更新机制的多阶段应急决策方法
王治莹1,2, 聂慧芳1, 赵宏丽1
(1. 安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032;2. 安徽工业大学公司治理与运营研究中心,安徽马鞍山243032)
摘要:
针对决策者情绪影响下参照点的动态调整可能导致不同决策结果的情形,提出一种考虑决策者情绪更新机制的多阶段应急决策方法.首先,描述突发事件下的多阶段应急决策问题,并以直觉模糊数的形式刻画相关决策信息;其次,给出决策者情绪影响下动态参照点的设置方法,并运用累积前景理论计算突发事件各个演化阶段的情景价值,据此建立决策者的情绪更新机制;然后,计算各个演化阶段的情景权重,并结合备选方案的期望价值、投入成本及启动时间价值,计算方案在各个演化阶段的前景价值;进一步,通过给出各个演化阶段权重的计算方法,计算备选方案的综合前景价值,并据此给出备选方案的优劣次序;最后,通过算例分析及与其他方法的对比验证所提出方法的有效性.
关键词:  情绪更新机制  多阶段应急决策  累积前景理论  直觉模糊数  动态参照点  突发事件
DOI:10.13195/j.kzyjc.2019.0493
分类号:C934
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71704001);安徽省自然科学基金项目(1808085QG224);安徽省高校人文社科研究重点项目(SK2019A0075);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKY2018D13).
Multi-stage emergency decision-making method with emotion updating mechanism of decision-makers
WANG Zhi-ying1,2,NIE Hui-fang1,ZHAO Hong-li1
(1. School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Maánshan243032,China;2. Center for Corporate Governance and Operation,Anhui University of Technology,Maánshan243032,China)
Abstract:
Aiming at the situation that the dynamic adjustment of reference points under the impact of decision makers' emotions may lead to different decision-making results, a multi-stage emergency decision-making method with emotion updating mechanism of decision-makers is proposed. Firstly, the multi-stage emergency decision-making problem under emergencies is described, and the relevant decision-making information is described in the form of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. And a setting method of dynamic reference points under the impact of decision makers' emotions is given, and the cumulative prospect theory is used to calculate the scenario value of each evolutionary stage of emergencies, thereby an emotion updating mechanism is developed. Then, the scenario weights of each stage are calculated, and the prospect values of alternatives at each stage are calculated according to the expected values, input costs and start-up time values of the alternatives. Furthermore, by giving a calculation method of the weight of each stage, the overall values of the alternatives are calculated and the ranking of the alternatives is given. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by a numerical example and comparison with other methods.
Key words:  emotion updating mechanism  multi-stage emergency decision-making  cumulative prospect theory  intuitionistic fuzzy number  dynamic reference points  emergencies

用微信扫一扫

用微信扫一扫