基于面板数据的灰色B型关联模型及其应用
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(华北水利水电大学数学与统计学院,郑州450046)

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E-mail: iamld99@163.com.

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N941.5

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国家自然科学基金项目(71271086, 51979106);河南省科技攻关计划项目(182102310014);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(18A630030);河南省研究生教育优质课程建设项目(HNYJS2015KC02).


Grey incidence model of B-mode based on panel data and its application
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(School of Mathematics and Statistics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou450046,China)

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    摘要:

    基于灰色B型关联分析的基本思想,针对现有面板数据灰色关联模型中对象排列顺序变化引起的关联序不一致的问题,以及因未充分考虑对象维度序列关于同一时刻不同对象下均值的变化率导致关联结果失真的问题,从时间维度和对象维度两个方面构建基于面板数据的灰色B型关联模型.在时间维度上,通过引进各指标间的总体位移差、一阶斜率差及二阶斜率差得到横向关联度;在对象维度上,采用各点与同一时刻不同对象下均值之比来刻画纵向关联度,并对两者求加权平均,进而构建出基于面板数据的灰色B型关联模型.讨论模型的规范性、一致保序性等性质.对比分析表明,模型简单有效且不受对象排列顺序的影响.以豫北平原5个市的干旱灾害风险指数为特征指标序列,理清干旱灾害风险指数与其12个影响因素的关联关系,为旱灾风险评估与调控提供理论支持.

    Abstract:

    Based on the basic idea of the grey relational analysis of B-mode, aiming at the defects of the association order inconsistency caused by the change of object arrangement sequence in the grey relational model of the existing panel data and the problem of distortion caused by not fully considering the change rate between object dimension sequence and the mean for different objects at the same time, the gray incidence model of B-mode based on panel data is constructed from two aspects of time dimension and object dimension. In the time dimension, the horizontal correlation degree is obtained by introducing the overall displacement difference, the first order slope difference and the two order slope difference between each index. In the object dimension, the vertical correlation degree is described by the ratio of each point and the mean of the different objects at the same time. And then, the grey incidence model of B-mode based on panel data is constructed by calculating the weighted average of the two correlation degrees. The properties of normalization and multiple transformation isotonicity of the model are discussed. The example shows that the model is simple and effective, and is not affected by the order of objects. Finally, the drought hazard index of five cities in Northern Henan Plain is used as the characteristic index sequence to clarify the relationship between the drought risk index and its 12 influencing factors, which provides a theoretical basis for the drought risk assessment and regulation.

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罗党,张曼曼.基于面板数据的灰色B型关联模型及其应用[J].控制与决策,2020,35(6):1476-1482

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-05-15
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