基于综合评价的多指标情境化预测方法与应用
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C934

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国家自然科学基金项目(72171041, 72171040);辽宁省自然科学基金优秀青年基金项目(2024JH3/10200008).


Multi-indicator contextualized prediction method based on comprehensive evaluation and its application
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    摘要:

    针对小到个体、组织, 大至地区、国家等复杂系统的未来发展进行的综合预判问题, 基于综合评价并结合被评价对象(系统)的历史发展对其未来进行多指标预测分析, 从而为其未来发展的综合预判提供数据支撑. 由于被评价对象的未来发展往往充满一定的不确定性, 具体研究中将被评价对象的未来发展预期分为超乐观、乐观、平均、悲观和超悲观5种情境, 以此为基础分情境预测未来短期内被评价对象的发展空间, 并构建相应的预测性评价方法. 在对指标进行赋权时, 从有利于系统未来整体发展的视角提出一种指标权重设计方法. 在预测性评价结论方面, 考虑到未来发展的不确定性特征, 将随机聚合方法融合至预测模型的求解中, 采用带有概率特征的相对优劣排序方式来描述被评价对象未来可能的发展水平. 最后, 将所提出方法应用于组织中层管理人员未来发展潜力预测性评价中, 通过与已有方法的对比分析表明所提出方法特征的同时, 验证所提出方法的有效性. 该研究可为复杂系统未来发展的综合预判问题提供方法支撑, 研究结论可为系统规划和资源分配提供基于历史数据支撑的有效参考.

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the comprehensive prediction of the future development of small entities, organizations, regions, countries, and other complex systems, this paper makes a multi-index prediction and analysis of the future of the evaluated object(system) based on comprehensive evaluation and the historical development, thus providing data support for the comprehensive prediction of its future development. Given the inherent uncertainty surrounding future developments, we categorize potential outcomes into five scenarios: super optimistic, optimistic, average, pessimistic, and super pessimistic. These scenarios serve as a foundation for predicting short-term developmental prospects and for constructing a corresponding evaluation method. To assign weights to the indicators, we propose a design methodology that prioritizes the overall future development of the system. Recognizing the uncertain nature of future developments, we integrate a stochastic aggregation method into the prediction model, utilizing a probabilistic ranking approach to characterize the potential future developmental levels of the evaluated entity. Finally, we apply this methodology to assess the future development potential of middle managers within organizations. The effectiveness of the approach is validated through comparative analysis with existing methods, highlighting the distinctive features of the proposed technique. This study offers methodological support for the comprehensive prediction of future developments in complex systems and provides actionable insights, grounded in historical data, for system planning and resource allocation.

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易平涛,于海婷,李伟伟,等.基于综合评价的多指标情境化预测方法与应用[J].控制与决策,2025,40(4):1189-1197

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-03-21
  • 出版日期: 2025-04-20
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