Abstract:Aiming at the comprehensive prediction of the future development of small entities, organizations, regions, countries, and other complex systems, this paper makes a multi-index prediction and analysis of the future of the evaluated object(system) based on comprehensive evaluation and the historical development, thus providing data support for the comprehensive prediction of its future development. Given the inherent uncertainty surrounding future developments, we categorize potential outcomes into five scenarios: super optimistic, optimistic, average, pessimistic, and super pessimistic. These scenarios serve as a foundation for predicting short-term developmental prospects and for constructing a corresponding evaluation method. To assign weights to the indicators, we propose a design methodology that prioritizes the overall future development of the system. Recognizing the uncertain nature of future developments, we integrate a stochastic aggregation method into the prediction model, utilizing a probabilistic ranking approach to characterize the potential future developmental levels of the evaluated entity. Finally, we apply this methodology to assess the future development potential of middle managers within organizations. The effectiveness of the approach is validated through comparative analysis with existing methods, highlighting the distinctive features of the proposed technique. This study offers methodological support for the comprehensive prediction of future developments in complex systems and provides actionable insights, grounded in historical data, for system planning and resource allocation.