基于前景理论的群体灰靶决策方法
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作者:
作者单位:

1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016;
2. 河南科技大学数学与统计学院,河南洛阳471003 .

作者简介:

闫书丽

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中图分类号:

N945

基金项目:

国家社科基金重大项目(10zd&014);国家社科重点项目(12AZD102);国家自然科学基金项目(71111130211, 90924022, 70971064, 70901041, 71171112, 71171113, 71271226).


Group grey target decision making based on prospect theory
Author:
Affiliation:

1. College of Economic and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016, China;
2. School of Mathematics and Statistics,He’nan University of Science and Technology,Luoyang 471003,China.

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    摘要:

    考虑决策者关于各指标均有期望灰靶对群体决策的影响, 提出一种基于前景理论的群体灰靶决策方法. 该方法以期望灰靶为参考点来定义前景价值函数, 利用奖优罚劣的线性变换算子对前景价值进行规范化处理, 能够充分反映评价值是否中靶. 根据群体意见一致性以及最高和最低评价对决策结果偏差的影响, 构建决策者权重确定模型, 并根据综合前景值的正负判断方案是否中靶. 最后通过突发事件应急预案选择问题说明了该模型的可行性和有效性.

    Abstract:

    Considering the impact on group decision making from that every decision maker has grey targets about attributes, a method of group grey target decision making is proposed on the prospect theory. A prospect value function is defined by using the expected grey target as reference point. A linear operator with the features of the “rewarding good and punishing bad” is used to standardize the prospect values. The positive or negative sign of the standardized values can reflect adequately
    that the attributes’ values hit the bull’s eye or not. Then, the weight model of decision maker is proposed based on group’s consistency and influence of the maximum and minimum evaluation on the deviation of decision. And the project hits bull’s eye or not is judged according to the positive or negative sign of comprehensive prospect values. Finally, the emergency plan selection shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.

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引用本文

闫书丽 刘思峰.基于前景理论的群体灰靶决策方法[J].控制与决策,2014,29(4):673-678

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2012-12-24
  • 最后修改日期:2013-06-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-04-20
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