清单计价模式下考虑投标人风险态度的投标报价博弈模型
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(福州大学经济与管理学院,福州350108)

作者简介:

李登峰(1965-), 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 从事经济管理评价决策与对策理论及其应用等研究;袁玲丽(1992-), 女, 硕士生, 从事经济管理评价决策与对策理论及其应用的研究.

通讯作者:

E-mail: lidengfeng@fzu.edu.cn

中图分类号:

TU723.2

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金重点项目(71231003).


Game-based bidding quotation model considering attitude under the bill of quantities
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(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou350108,China)

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    摘要:

    博弈论在工程项目中的应用能使投标决策更加科学.然而,很多投标报价博弈模型都是基于投标人风险规避假设的,通常这种假设并不符合实际情况.为了更加贴近实际投标报价情形,有必要考虑各投标人(博弈方)的风险偏好.鉴于此,在清单计价模式下,利用综合评估法,通过引入代表投标人风险态度的风险系数,构建投标报价博弈模型,导出其最优报价的关系方程式及其迭代求解算法,并分析其投标报价策略与风险系数对最优报价的影响.实证分析表明,应用所建立的博弈模型进行投标报价能够提高投标中标率,与现有类似方法的比较分析表明,所提出的投标报价博弈模型具有更贴近实际的优越性,可为实际投标报价决策提供方法支持.

    Abstract:

    Application of the game theory in construction can make the bidding decision more scientific. However, many existing game-based bidding quotation models are based on the hypothesis of risk averse tenders, which does not conform to the construction condition. To better fit the project bidding reality, it is necessary to consider the bidders' (or players') risk attitude. This paper establishes the bidding quotation game model under the bill of quantities with the comprehensive evaluation method by introducing the risk factor representing the bidders' risk attitude, derives the equations of bidding relation and its iterative algorithm, and analyzes the bidding strategies and effects of bidders' risk coefficients on optimal bidding quotations. Analysis of a real case shows that the implication of the game model in bidding quotation can lead to an improvement in the probability of winning the bid. And the proposed game model has its superiority, which may provide a support of methods for real bidding decision making.

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李登峰,袁玲丽.清单计价模式下考虑投标人风险态度的投标报价博弈模型[J].控制与决策,2018,33(6):1093-1099

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-05-29
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