基于残差思想的区间灰数预测优化模型
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作者单位:

(南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016)

作者简介:

党耀国(1964-), 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 从事灰色系统理论、数量经济等研究;叶璟(1988-), 女, 博士生, 从事灰色系统理论及其应用的研究.

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E-mail: iamdangyg@163.com

中图分类号:

N945.1

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(71771119,71371098);江苏省社会科学基金重点项目(16GLA001);南京航空航天大学基本科研业务费重大培育项目(NP2016301).


Optimized grey prediction model of interval grey numbers based on residual corrections
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(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China)

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    摘要:

    针对区间灰数的预测问题,通过构建区间灰数核的预测模型并结合残差修正思想对区间灰数的信息域进行扩展,运用改进的区间灰数函数处理方法强化对区间灰数上下界序列的趋势拟合,优化对未来发展状态的预测精度,建模过程体现了区间灰数预测中“信息充分利用”的原则.通过长江三角洲地区人均工业废水排放量的实例,对比所提出方法和传统灰色预测方法的结果,验证了所提出方法的有效性和实用性.所提出的方法能够为区间灰数预测提供一种有效途径,其原理清晰,可广泛应用于存在区间灰数的各领域.

    Abstract:

    For the prediction of interval grey numbers, the prediction model based on the kernel sequence of interval grey number is constructed, and the idea of information domain is expanded based on residual corrections in this paper. To be specific, the information domain is divided into two parts and processed by the improved function transformation to strengthen the fitting effects of the trends of the upper and lower bounds in interval grey numbers before establishing prediction models respectively. By combination of the forecasting models of the kernel sequence and the processed information domains, the prediction results for the interval grey numbers are optimized and the principle of “full usage of information” is reflected during the modeling process of the interval grey numbers. Through discussing the case of the per capita industrial wastewater discharge in the Yangtze River Delta, the results of this method is verified by compared with traditional grey prediction methods of interval grey numbers, which shows its effectiveness and practicability. The proposed method provides another feasible forecasting method for the interval grey number prediction. The clear principle and modeling mechanism of this method make it possible to be applied in every field where interval grey numbers exists.

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党耀国,叶璟.基于残差思想的区间灰数预测优化模型[J].控制与决策,2018,33(6):1147-1152

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-05-29
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