基于GARCH-V模型的处置效应研究
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(1. 中南大学商学院,长沙410083;2. 湖南师范大学商学院,长沙410006;3. 江南大学商学院,江苏无锡214122)

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E-mail: xienan0720@126.com.

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F83

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国家自然科学基金重点项目(71631008, 71371194, 71701081).


Disposition effect based on GARCH-V model
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(1. Business School,Central South University,Changsha410083,China;2. Business School,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410006,China;3. School of Business,Jiangnan University,Wuxi214122,China)

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    摘要:

    为了考察作为投资者决策非理性因素的处置效应与股价波动之间的关系,引入用来检验处置效应是否存在的资本盈利突出量(Capital gains overhang).首先,在GARCH-V模型的基础上,引入用来检验处置效应是否存在的资本盈利突出量,并构建GARCH-V-G模型;然后,对成熟市场与新兴市场这两个不同类型市场上投资者在投资决策过程中存在的处置效应与股票价格波动之间的关系进行实证研究和比较,发现资本盈利突出量与股票市场的波动负相关,对股市波动的持续性具有一定的解释能力,并且新兴市场上投资者表现出的处置效应无论是对波动持续性的解释能力还是对波动的影响程度都比成熟市场要强;最后,根据赤池信息准则(AIC)发现,所构建的基于处置效应的GARCH-V-G模型比GARCH-V模型的拟合效果更好.

    Abstract:

    In order to study the effect of disposition of investors, who have insensible factors, on stock price volatility, we introduce the capital gains overhang. Based on the GARCH trode vdyne(GARCH-V) model, we introduce the capital gains overhang and establish theGARCH capital gains overhaug(GARCH-V-G) model. The stock indexes on developed market and emerging market are used as samples to conduct a comparative empirical study. It is found that the capital gains overhang is negatively related to price fluctuation on stock markets, which means that the investors with capital gains can weaken the price volatility, while the ones with capital losses can intensify the volatility. Moreover, the capital gains overhang can explain to some extent the persistence of stock price volatility, and the disposition effect shown by investors on emerging markets can explain better and affect greater the continual volatility than that on developed markets. Finally, our study shows that the GARCH-V-G model has better effect than the GARCH-V model.

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王宗润,谢楠,贺志芳.基于GARCH-V模型的处置效应研究[J].控制与决策,2019,34(9):1955-1963

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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-09-06
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