考虑投入产出关系与效率的环境治理成本预测方法
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(1. 福州大学决策科学研究所,福州350108;2. 福州大学空间数据挖掘与信息共享教育部重点实验室,福州350108)

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E-mail: msymwang@hotmail.com.

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C934

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(71501047,71801050,61773123);福建省社会科学规划青年项目(FJ2018C014).


Cost forecast method of environmental governance based on input-output relationship and efficiency
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(1. Decision Sciences Institute,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou350108,China;2. Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining {&} Information Sharing of Ministry of Education,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou350108,China)

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    摘要:

    针对环境治理中的成本规划问题,目前的解决方法主要是基于时间序列的成本预测方法,缺少对环境治理效率的考虑.鉴于此,提出基于效率偏好的ANFIS方法用于环境治理成本预测,其基本原理是分别以数据包络分析(DEA)的非期望产出模型和基于自适应神经模糊系统(ANFIS)考虑环境治理中的投入产出关系与效率.在实例分析中,根据2003年至2015年我国各省份的环境治理数据,分别从准确性和有效性两方面与具有代表性的现有方法进行性能分析和比较.结果显示,所提方法是有效的,且准确性优于现有方法.

    Abstract:

    In order to solve the problem of cost planning regarding environmental governance, the current solution is mainly based on the time series-based cost forecast methods, and neglects to consider the efficiency of environmental governance. Thus, a method of adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system(ANFIS) with efficiency preference is proposed for cost planning of environmental governance, whose basic idea is to consider the input-output relationship and efficiency in environmental governance by using the data envelopment analysis(DEA) undesired output model and ANFIS, respectively. In the case analysis, according to the environmental governance data of various provinces in China from 2003 to 2015, the performance analysis and comparison are carried out in terms of accuracy and effectiveness to compare with the conventional methods. The results show that the proposed method is effective and has better accuracy than those methods.

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叶菲菲,杨隆浩,王应明.考虑投入产出关系与效率的环境治理成本预测方法[J].控制与决策,2020,35(4):993-1003

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-03-03
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