基于犹豫度和相似度的专家权重确定方法及其应用
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(武警工程大学装备管理与保障学院,西安710086)

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E-mail: wuhusheng@vip.163.com.

中图分类号:

C934

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(61502534);装备军内科研项目(WJ20182A010010);全军军事类研究生重点课题(JY2018B408).


Expert weights determination method and application based on hesitancy degree and similarity measure
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(College of Equipment Management and Support,Engineering University of PAP,Xián 710086,China)

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    摘要:

    针对属性评价值为语言变量、专家权重未知的供应商选择决策问题,提出一种综合考虑评价犹豫度和相似度的专家权重确定方法.首先,根据专家评价的犹豫度差别改进语言变量转化标准,将语言变量转换为更符合决策实际的直觉模糊数;然后,从评价信息的犹豫度和相似度两个方面集成专家权重,得到集结后的综合评价矩阵;最后,运用逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)对供应商进行排序,通过算例验证所提方法的可行性和有效性.敏感性分析及对比分析结果表明,决策者对专家评价确定性和一致性的不同偏好会影响最终的决策结果,当专家因认知局限和个人偏好对属性评价的犹豫度存在差别时,采用考虑犹豫度差别的语言变量转化方法能够降低评价信息不确定性对评价结果产生的不合理影响,有利于提高评价结果的可信度.

    Abstract:

    To deal with the problem of supplier selection decision-making with attribute evaluation value as linguistic variables and unknown expert weights, this paper proposes an expert weight determination method that comprehensively considers the hesitancy degree and similarity of evaluation information. Firstly, the linguistic variable conversion standard is improved based on the difference in the hesitation degree of expert evaluation, and the linguistic variables are converted into intuitionistic fuzzy numbers that is more in line with the actual decision-making. Then, the expert weights are integrated from the hesitation degree and similarity of the evaluation information to obtain the aggregated synthesis evaluation matrix. Finally, the TOPSIS method is used to sort suppliers. The example verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results of sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis show that the different preference of a decision maker on the certainty and consistency of expert evaluation will affect the final decision-making result. When experts have different hesitations in attribute evaluation due to cognitive limitations and personal preferences, the linguistic variable conversion method taking into account the differences in hesitation can reduce the unreasonable impact of evaluation information uncertainty on evaluation results, which is helpful to improve the credibility of the evaluation result.

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引用本文

林原,战仁军,吴虎胜.基于犹豫度和相似度的专家权重确定方法及其应用[J].控制与决策,2021,36(6):1482-1488

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-05-10
  • 出版日期: 2021-06-20