不确定性信息表示及推理
作者:
作者单位:

西安高新技术研究所

作者简介:

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中图分类号:

TP181,TP182

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(重点项目),陕西省杰出青年科学基金


Expression and Inference of Uncertain Information
Author:
Affiliation:

High-Tech Institute of Xi''an

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (Key Program),Shaanxi Outstanding Youth Science Foundation

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    摘要:

    在基于数据的复杂系统建模过程中,各种不确定性信息普遍存在. 一般来说,客观系统的随机性与人类认知的模糊性构成了不确定性的最基本内涵. 为了对不确定性信息进行形式化的描述,促进人类对实际系统的理解,近年来各种不确定性理论得到了极大发展. 基于此,首先给出了不确定性的来源、分类及特点;然后,从随机性、模糊性及混合不确定性三方面系统梳理了贝叶斯推理、模糊推理、粗糙集、灰色理论和证据理论等方法在不确定性信息表示与推理方面的研究;同时总结分析了上述理论在可靠性工程、信息融合和决策支持等方面的典型应用. 最后,在对现有工作简要总结的基础上,提出了不确定性理论在未来发展中面临的三大挑战,并给出了潜在的解决思路,以期为该领域的研究者提供一定的参考.

    Abstract:

    In the process of modeling complex systems based on data, a large amount of uncertain knowledge prevails.Generally, the randomness of objective system and the ambiguity of human cognition constitute the basic connotation of uncertainty. To formally describe the uncertain information and promote human understanding of the actual system, various uncertain theories have been greatly developed in recent years. Therefore, the source, classification and characteristics of uncertainty are firstly given;Secondly, from the randomness, fuzziness and mixed uncertainty, this paper systematically summarizes the researches of Bayesian inference, fuzzy inference, rough set, grey theory and evidence theory on the expression and inference of uncertain information;Then, the typical applications of the above theories in engineering practice are discussed from three aspects: reliability engineering, information fusion and decision support. Finally, based on a brief summary of the existing work, three major challenges faced by uncertainty theory in the future development are proposed, and potential solutions are given to provide some reference for researchers in this field.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-01-27
  • 最后修改日期:2022-12-11
  • 录用日期:2022-06-15
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-28
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