灰色关联模型关联序结果的稳定性检验方法及应用
作者:
作者单位:

1.南京航空航天大学;2.南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院

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中图分类号:

N941.5

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(71771119;72001107),中国博士后科学基金(2020T130297),教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJC630167),江苏省自然科学基金青年项目(BK20190426),中央高校基本科研业务费(NP2022104).


Stability test method and application of incidence order results of the grey incidence model
Author:
Affiliation:

School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (71771119;72001107),China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2020T130297),Humanity and Social Science Youth foundation of Ministry of Education(19YJC630167),Natural fund of Jiangsu Province(BK20190426),the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(NP2022104).

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    摘要:

    针对目前灰色关联理论中模型结果检验方法的不足,提出一种对相近性灰色关联模型关联序结果稳定性检验的方法.首先以序列间对应观测点的数值差异作为构造序列间量级大小变化的最简单元,用以表征和定义序列间的相近性灰色关联度.其次引入了信息熵的基本思想,基于序列间量级大小变化的最简单元构建信息灰熵作为相近性视角下序列间关系稳定程度的度量标准.然后通过将研究对象的行为序列平均划分为不同阶段,来计算在不同阶段变化下序列间相近性灰色关联度的变动值,以动态关联数值与信息灰熵共同构造相近性灰色关联模型的稳定性检验系数,通过比较检验系数大小最终确定模型间结果的稳定程度.最后,选取了几种常见的相近性灰色关联模型对2016年-2021年南京市主要大气污染物进行影响因素分析,根据计算得到的检验系数对各模型的分析结果进行了验证和筛选.

    Abstract:

    A test idea for the stability of the correlation order results of the proximity grey incidence model was proposed, given the lack of test methods for model results in the current grey incidence theory. Firstly, the numerical difference of the corresponding observation points between the sequences is used as the simplest element to construct the magnitude change between the sequences to characterize and define the proximity grey incidence degree. Secondly, the basic idea of information entropy is introduced, and the information grey entropy is constructed by using the simplest element of the change of magnitude and size between sequences. The information grey entropy is used to measure the stability degree of the relationship between sequences from the perspective of proximity. Then, the behavior sequence of the research object is divided into different stages on average, and the change value of the proximity grey incidence degree between sequences under the change of different phases is calculated. The size of the tested coefficient finally determines the stability between the models. Finally, several standard grey correlation models are selected to analyze the influencing factors of the main air pollutants in Nanjing from 2016 to 2021. The results of each model are verified and screened according to the stability test coefficient obtained by calculation.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-04-02
  • 最后修改日期:2023-03-14
  • 录用日期:2022-09-03
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-09-07
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