体现分布特征的混合信息随机转化聚合求解方法及应用
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1.东北大学工商管理学院;2.南昌大学;3.东北大学

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C934

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Method and application of random transformation and integrated aggregation of heterogeneous information based on distributed characteristics
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School of Business Administration, Northeastern University

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    摘要:

    随着决策环境的日趋复杂,多类型混合决策信息共存的现象越来越普遍。针对该现象,本文考虑不同类型决策信息的分布特征,细化探讨了通过分段随机抽样的方式将混合信息转化为随机数的方法,该方法可以尽可能提升转化后数据与原始信息分布结构的一致性。通过大规模的模拟分析归纳总结出了不同情形下混合信息随机转化过程中最佳分段子区间的求解方法与结论,可为实际应用中分段抽样区间的确定提供参考。进一步,将随机聚合求解方法与混合信息的随机转化过程进行融合,通过对聚合求解过程中方案之间优胜概率及排序位分布概率的统计得到体现方案之间相对优劣关系的可能性排序结论,实现了决策结论由“绝对形式”向“相对形式”的柔性转化,该结论形式更加吻合于原始决策信息的多样化、不确定性及模糊性特征,因而更具可解释性和可接受性。最后,通过与已有算例的对比分析验证了本文方法的有效性;并以省域发展潜力综合预判为背景构建了应用算例,对本文方法的特征及应用前景进行了说明。本研究进一步丰富了混合信息的转化途径,可为多类型信息共存的复杂决策问题提供方法支撑。

    Abstract:

    With the complexity of decision environment, the coexistence of multiple types of heterogeneous decision information is more and more common. To this phenomenon, the paper proposes a new transformation method to unify heterogeneous information into a set of random values by segmenting the data range into several subintervals based on its distribution characteristics. This method can improve the consistency of distribution structure between the transformed values and initial information as much as possible. Through large-scale simulation analysis, the solution method and conclusion of the optimal sub-segment interval in the random transformation process of heterogeneous information under different circumstances are summarized, which can provide reference for the determination of the sub-segment sampling interval in practical application. Further, the integrated aggregation method is fused with the random transformation process. Through the statistics of the superiority probability and ranking distribution probability between any two alternatives in the aggregation process, the possibility ranking result reflecting the relative advantages and disadvantages of alternatives is obtained. This type of ranking result achieves the flexible transformation of decision conclusion from "absolute form" to "relative form", which is more consistent with the diversity, uncertainty and fuzziness of the original decision information and is more interpretable and acceptable. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparison and analysis with existing examples. An application example is constructed on the background of comprehensive prediction of provincial development potential to illustrate the characteristics and application prospect of this method. This study further enriches the transformation approach of heterogeneous information and provides method support for complex decision-making problems with multiple types of information co-existing.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-06-03
  • 最后修改日期:2024-02-03
  • 录用日期:2023-11-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-28
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