可变一致分数阶非线性离散灰色多变量模型及应用
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N941.5

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国家自然科学基金项目(12471354);江苏高校“青蓝工程”项目.


Variable conformable fractional nonlinear discrete grey multivariate model and its applications
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    摘要:

    一致分数阶灰色多变量卷积(CFGMC($ \alpha, N $))模型在传统的灰色多变量(GM($1, N $))模型基础上引入一致分数阶导数和常数项, 不仅体现了信息的差异性对数据发展趋势的影响, 还实现了与经典GM($1, 1 $)模型的兼容性. 然而CFGMC($ \alpha, N $)模型存在驱动因素累加阶数单一、结构简单、微分方程与差分方程之间的转换误差等缺陷. 为此, 对因变量和自变量一致分数阶累加的阶数进行差异化分析, 同时引入非线性校正项并借助于离散灰色模型的思想以消除转换误差, 构建一种可变一致分数阶非线性离散灰色多变量模型, 并分析新模型的基本性质, 给出最优累加阶数的计算方法. 利用该模型对油气管道腐蚀速率进行分析, 结果显示新模型的拟合和预测精度明显优于经典的GM($1, N $)模型、CFGMC($ \alpha, N $) 模型等其他几种灰色多变量模型.

    Abstract:

    Conformable fractional grey multivariate convolutional (CFGMC($ \alpha, N $)) model introduces the conformable fractional derivative and constant term on the basis of the traditional grey multivariate (GM($1, N $)) model, which not only reflects the influence of the difference of dependent variable information on the data development trend, but also realizes the compatibility with the classical GM($1, 1 $) model. However, the CFGMC($ \alpha, N $) model has some defects, such as single cumulative order of driving factors, simple structure, and conversion error between differential equation and difference equation. Therefore, by setting different conformable fractional accumulation orders to all dependent and independent variables, introducing an additional nonlinear correction term and using the idea of the discrete grey model to eliminate the conversion error, a variable conformable fractional nonlinear discrete grey multivariate model is proposed. Basic properties of the model are analyzed, and the calculation method to compute the optimal accumulation orders is given. Using this model to analyze the corrosion rate of oil and gas pipelines, the results demonstrate that the proposed model exhibits significantly better fitting and prediction accuracy compared to other grey multivariate models, such as the classic GM($1, N $) model and the CFGMC($ \alpha, N $) model.

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沈琴琴,杨林云,曹阳.可变一致分数阶非线性离散灰色多变量模型及应用[J].控制与决策,2025,40(9):2797-2806

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-08
  • 出版日期: 2025-09-20
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