公众参与应急管理中的大群体决策理论、方法及应用综述
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C934

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国家自然科学基金项目(72271173);四川大学建设世界一流大学经费项目(2024ZY-SXT2).


A review of theories, methods and applications of large-scale group decision-making with public participation in emergency management
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    摘要:

    随着突发事件复杂性和不确定性的增加, 传统由政府主导及专家决策的模式已无法适应现代应急管理的要求, 公众作为直接利益相关者, 其意见和风险感知在应急决策阶段具有关键作用. 为弥补公众参与应急管理中的大群体决策理论、方法及应用系统性研究的不足, 对该领域的相关研究展开综述. 首先, 分析影响公众参与的关键因素, 探讨公众参与的模式与机制, 并总结促进公众参与的策略; 其次, 回顾大群体决策理论与方法的核心研究问题及在应急决策中的应用; 此外, 针对公众参与的大群体应急决策问题, 梳理公众意见挖掘与情感分析方法, 以及公众参与的共识研究; 最后, 指出当前研究在公众参与因素系统性分析、大群体应急决策时效性研究、情感分析技术应用、群体交互式反馈调节机制设计等方面的不足及潜在研究方向.

    Abstract:

    With the increasing complexity and uncertainty of emergencies, the traditional model of government-led and experts decision-making has been unable to meet the requirements of modern emergency management. As a direct stakeholder, opinions and risk perception of the public play a key role in emergency decision-making. To fill the lack of systematic research on large-scale group decision-making with public participation in emergency management, the relevant studies are reviewed. First, the key factors affecting public participation, participation models and mechanisms, and strategies to promote public participation are analyzed. Second, the core research contents of large-scale group decision-making and the applications in emergency decision-making are reviewed. Additionally, with a particular emphasis on large-scale group emergency decision-making problems involving public participation, methods of public opinion mining and sentiment analysis, as well as consensus research are outlined. Finally, focused on systematic analysis of the factors of public participation, research on timeliness of large-scale group emergency decision-making, applications of sentiment analysis techniques, and design of interactive consensus feedback mechanism, the shortcomings of current research and potential research directions are summarized.

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徐泽水,程晓婷,缑迅杰.公众参与应急管理中的大群体决策理论、方法及应用综述[J].控制与决策,2025,40(10):2913-2932

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-09
  • 出版日期: 2025-10-20
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