移情网络下有序回归残缺值估计和应急决策共识建模
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C934

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国家自然科学基金项目(72371137);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX23_1280).


Incomplete values ordinal regression estimation and consensus modeling for emergency decision-making under empathetic network
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    摘要:

    突发事件应急决策过程中, 决策者常因判断矩阵信息缺失而对其他决策者偏好产生移情效应, 且个体间偏好信息冲突阻碍共识达成. 针对残缺判断矩阵群决策问题, 现有方法往往忽略了挖掘高质量的额外信息来辅助决策, 有限的信息降低了决策结果的可靠性. 此外, 传统研究中矩阵补全与共识达成过程相互独立, 且反馈机制中难以识别出决策个体的冲突偏好, 影响共识达成效率. 为了克服以上问题, 提出一个移情网络下同步实现矩阵补全和共识达成的群决策框架. 该框架首先有效整合间接偏好信息与移情偏好信息, 构建有序回归共识判别模型; 其次, 通过设计冲突反馈机制, 分别构建冲突信息最小成本剔除和调整共识模型, 该方法不仅能够深入挖掘有效的隐性信息, 而且可以促进残缺值补全、共识达成与加性一致性实现的有机融合, 提升应急决策过程中估计值的可信度和共识达成效率; 最后, 通过台风灾害应急案例、仿真和对比分析验证了所提出框架的有效性.

    Abstract:

    In emergency decision-making, decision-makers often empathize with other experts' preferences due to lacking information, and preferences conflicts hinder the achievement of consensus. For group decision-making problems involving incomplete preference relations, existing methods often neglect to mine high-quality additional information as assistance, and limited information reduces the reliability of decision results. In traditional research, preference completion and consensus achievement are separate, making conflict identification in feedback hard and reducing consensus efficiency. To overcome these issues, a group decision-making framework is proposed to simultaneously achieve completion and consensus under an empathetic network. This framework first fuses indirect preferences and empathetic preferences to construct an ordinal regression consensus discrimination model. Then, we design a feedback mechanism to accurately identify conflicts and construct cost-effective consensus models. This method not only deeply mines implicit information but also promotes the integration of missing values completion, consensus achievement, and consistency realization, enhancing the credibility of estimates and the efficiency of consensus reaching. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed framework is verified through typhoon disaster case, simulation, and comparison.

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夏璇,巩在武.移情网络下有序回归残缺值估计和应急决策共识建模[J].控制与决策,2025,40(7):2203-2212

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-31
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-05
  • 出版日期: 2025-07-20
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