新息优先一致分数阶离散GM(1,1)模型及应用
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1. 南通大学 交通与土木工程学院,江苏 南通 226019;2. 南通大学 数学与统计学院, 江苏 南通 226019;3. 南通大学 信息科学技术学院,江苏 南通 226019

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E-mail: caoyangnt@ntu.edu.cn.

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N941.5

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(61771265);江苏高校“青蓝工程”项目.


New information priority conformable fractional discrete GM(1,1) model and applications
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1. School of Transportation and Civil Engineering,Nantong University,Nantong 226019,China;2. School of Mathematics and Statistics,Nantong University,Nantong 226019,China;3. School of Information Science and Technology,Nantong University,Nantong 226019,China

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    摘要:

    一致分数阶GM(1,1)(CFGM(1,1))模型是一种基于一致分数阶累加的单变量灰色预测模型.一致分数阶累加生成算子不满足灰色预测理论中极其重要的新息优先原则,且CFGM(1,1)模型存在从差分方程到微分方程的转换误差.为此,提出一种新息优先一致分数阶累加生成算子,结合离散GM(1,1)模型的思想,构建新息优先一致分数阶离散GM(1,1)模型,从理论上导出新算子满足新息优先原则的条件,并用两类智能优化算法寻求模型中的最优累加参数.两个实际案例表明,所提模型不仅能满足新息优先原则,还可以有效克服CFGM(1,1)模型中的转换误差,具有更优的拟合和预测精度.

    Abstract:

    The conformable fractional GM(1,1)(CFGM(1,1)) model, which is based on the conformable fractional accumulation, is a recently proposed univariate grey prediction model. The conformable fractional accumulated generating operator does not satisfy the new information priority principle, which is extremely important in grey prediction theory. And the CFGM(1,1) model suffers from transformation errors from difference equation to differential equation. To address these two issues, a new information priority conformable accumulated generating operator is proposed. By combining the idea of the discrete GM(1,1) model, a new information priority conformable fractional discrete GM(1,1) model is constructed. The conditions for the novel operator to satisfy the new information priority principle are theoretically derived. Meanwhile, two kinds of intelligent optimization algorithms are adopted to determine the optimal accumulation parameters. Two practical examples demonstrate that the proposed model not only satisfies the new information priority principle but also effectively overcomes the transformation errors in the CFGM(1,1) model, resulting in better fitting and prediction accuracy.

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沈琴琴,曹阳,王鲁欣,等.新息优先一致分数阶离散GM(1,1)模型及应用[J].控制与决策,2024,39(12):3964-3972

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-20
  • 出版日期: 2024-12-20
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