中断风险下考虑随机参照价格效应的复杂产品多源采购策略
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F224;F274

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国家自然科学基金项目(72071106).


A multi-source procurement strategy of manufacturers considering stochastic reference price effect under risk of disruption
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    摘要:

    在全球政治经济局势日益复杂多变的今天, 国际供应链面临着前所未有的挑战, 断链风险如影随形. 针对由一个制造商、两个供应商以及一个紧急供应商组成的二级供应链系统, 研究突发事件导致供应链中断时, 考虑消费者的购买决策易受随机参照价格影响的情形下, 制造商应如何进行定价决策以及采购策略的选择. 研究结果表明: 1)当不可靠供应商中断概率和随机参照价格波动性较小时, 制造商选择单一供应商采购策略将获得更大的利润; 当中断概率较大时, 双源采购策略是制造商更好的选择. 2)随机参照价格的波动性和中断概率均会显著影响制造商对各供应商采购量、供应商的批发价格、制造商定价以及产品的绿色度. 3)不可靠供应商中断概率和随机参照价格波动性对于制造商定价决策的影响程度具有不确定性.

    Abstract:

    In today’s world with increasingly complex and volatile global political and economic dynamics, international supply chains face unprecedented challenges, with disruption risks constantly looming. This paper investigates a two-echelon supply chain system consisting of one manufacturer, two suppliers, and one emergency supplier, focusing on how manufacturers should make pricing decisions and select procurement strategies during supply chain disruptions caused by unexpected events, particularly considering the susceptibility of consumer purchasing decisions to random reference price effects. The results show that: 1) When the probability of disruption of unreliable suppliers and the volatility of random reference prices are small, manufacturers will obtain greater profits by choosing a single-supplier procurement strategy; When the probability of disruption is high, the dual-source sourcing strategy is a better choice for manufacturers. 2) The volatility and interruption probability of the random reference price will significantly affect the manufacturer’s purchase volume of each supplier, the wholesale price of the supplier, the manufacturer’s pricing and the greenness of the product. 3) The degree of influence of unreliable supplier disruption probability and random reference price volatility on manufacturers’ pricing decisions is not determined.

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储开伟,朱建军.中断风险下考虑随机参照价格效应的复杂产品多源采购策略[J].控制与决策,2026,41(2):543-554

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-17
  • 出版日期: 2026-02-10
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