考虑可再生能源不确定性成本的低碳电力系统机组组合调度
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TM73

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国家自然科学基金重点项目(62433013);国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U25B20190).


Low-carbon unit commitment scheduling considering renewable energy source uncertainty cost
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    摘要:

    可再生能源(RES)在电力系统中渗透率的不断提升, 其固有的波动性及碳排放传播路径的复杂性, 给低碳经济调度带来了严峻挑战. 现有方法难以精确量化RES不确定性成本, 传统碳定价机制亦无法有效追溯RES波动引发的间接碳排放. 为此, 提出一种融合信息论不确定性成本建模与动态碳流分配的多目标优化框架. 首先, 设计基于信息熵的RES不确定性成本模型, 通过Shapley值公平分摊不确定性风险, 解决了RES近乎零边际成本参与机组组合的难题. 其次, 建立碳流驱动的动态节点碳强度分摊模型, 精确追踪RES功率偏差引致的额外碳排放传播路径. 进而, 提出多模态NSGA-III (MMNSGA-III)算法, 协调信息论不确定性成本模型与动态碳分配机制之间的权衡. 该算法采用动态参考点和多模态策略, 有效应对RES导致的决策空间碎片化问题, 确保在同时最小化不确定性成本和碳排放传播方面获得帕累托最优解.

    Abstract:

    The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) in power systems poses significant challenges for low-carbon economic dispatch due to their inherent variability and the complexity of carbon emission propagation paths. Existing methods struggle to accurately quantify RES uncertainty costs, and traditional carbon pricing mechanisms fail to effectively trace the indirect carbon emissions induced by RES fluctuations. To address these issues, this study proposes a multi-objective optimization framework integrating uncertainty cost modeling based on information theory and dynamic carbon flow allocation. Firstly, an information entropy-based RES uncertainty cost model is designed. This model resolves the challenge of RES participation in unit commitment due to their near-zero marginal costs by equitably allocating uncertainty risks via Shapley value. Secondly, a carbon flow-driven dynamic bus carbon intensity allocation model is developed to precisely trace the propagation paths of additional carbon emissions caused by RES power deviations. Thirdly, an Multi Modal NSGA-III (MMNSGA-III) algorithm is proposed to coordinate the trade-offs between the uncertainty cost model and the dynamic carbon allocation mechanism. This algorithm employs dynamic reference points and multi-modal strategies to effectively navigate RES-induced fragmented decision spaces, ensuring pareto solutions that simultaneously minimize uncertainty costs and emission propagation.

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王靖傲,孙秋野,刘子铭,等.考虑可再生能源不确定性成本的低碳电力系统机组组合调度[J].控制与决策,2026,41(9):2617-2630

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-20
  • 出版日期: 2026-09-10
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