多变量阻尼累加非线性时滞离散灰色模型及其应用
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N941.5

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国家自然科学基金项目(12471354);南通市自然科学基金青年基金项目(JC2024043);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(SJCX25_2054).


Multivariate damping accumulated nonlinear time-lag discrete grey model and its applications
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    摘要:

    针对多变量时滞阻尼累加灰色模型$({\rm TLDAGM} (1,N)) $建模机理不明确、非线性特征挖掘不充分以及存在转换误差等问题, 提出一种多变量阻尼累加非线性时滞离散灰色模型. 首先, 引入线性和非线性修正项拓展模型灰信息结构, 不仅能够增强对数据非线性特征的挖掘能力, 还能实现与经典${\rm GM }(1,1) $模型的兼容性; 然后, 通过数值积分可有效避免原模型中将时间驱动项视为灰常量以及对导数项的近似处理所引起的建模误差; 最后, 结合离散灰色建模的思想, 有效消除微分方程到差分方程的转换误差. 选取近年来上海市高新技术产业产值数据进行实证分析, 并利用量子粒子群优化算法寻求模型的最优参数. 结果表明, 新模型的拟合和预测精度均优于${\rm TLDAGM} (1,N) $模型以及其他几种多变量灰色模型, 且展现出良好的稳定性.

    Abstract:

    To address the issues of unclear modeling mechanism, inadequate extraction of nonlinear features, and conversion errors in the multivariable time-lag damping accumulated grey model $({\rm TLDAGM} (1,N)) $, this study proposes a multivariate damping accumulated nonlinear time-lag discrete grey model. First, linear and nonlinear correction terms are introduced to enrich the model’s grey information structure, which can not only improve the model’s capability to capture nonlinear characteristics in the data, but also ensure compatibility with the classic${\rm GM }(1,1) $ model. Second, numerical integration is employed to address the modelling error resulting from the original model's treatment of the time-driven term as a grey constant and its imprecise formulation of the derivative term. Third, by adopting the idea of discrete grey modeling, the conversion error arising from the transition between differential and difference equations is effectively reduced. An empirical analysis using the output value data of high-tech enterprises in Shanghai in recent years is conducted, and the model parameters are optimized using the quantum particle swarm optimization. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the ${\rm TLDAGM} (1,N) $ model and several other multivariable grey models in terms of both fitting and prediction accuracy, and exhibits good stability.

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杨林云,沈琴琴,曹阳.多变量阻尼累加非线性时滞离散灰色模型及其应用[J].控制与决策,2026,41(5):1321-1330

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-17
  • 出版日期: 2026-05-10
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