融合间歇性需求预测的大型制造企业动态安全库存模型
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TP181

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国家自然科学基金面上项目(62472146);国家重点研发计划重点专项项目 (2018YFB1701400);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(25A520007);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(25YJCZH071).


A dynamic safety stock model with intermittent demand forecasting for large manufacturing enterprise
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    摘要:

    安全库存是核心制造企业主导的库存管理关键环节. 然而, 现有安全库存模型难以有效应对故障工单数据的间歇性分布特性, 导致面对较大需求波动或随机失效等不确定性场景时难以获得合理的库存决策. 鉴于此, 提出一种融合间歇性配件需求预测的动态安全库存模型. 首先, 提出一种基于贝叶斯图神经网络的多变量间歇性时间序列预测方法, 通过图结构提取序列之间的结构化信息, 并引入贝叶斯网络评估配件需求序列自身的不确定性, 以实现间歇性时间序列的置信区间预测; 其次, 基于典型三级仓储架构, 建立一个最小化呆滞库存成本和缺货成本的多目标安全库存优化模型, 得到基础安全库存值, 并与需求预测区间融合得到动态的安全库存上下限值; 最后, 采用国内某大型轨道交通制造企业的实际配件需求数据进行验证. 实验结果表明, 所提出模型不仅能够有效预测间歇性配件数据的需求走势, 更能够实现库存周转率和覆盖度的同时提升, 由此揭示了精准的需求预测是提升安全库存效果的关键.

    Abstract:

    Safety stock is a critical component of inventory management for core manufacturing enterprise. Nevertheless, current safety stock models struggle to effectively address the intermittent distribution characteristics of spare parts work order data, which makes it fail to obtain reliable safety stock decision when facing uncertain cases of significant demand volatility and random failure. To address this concern, this paper proposes a dynamic safety stock model with intermittent spare parts demand (SPD) forecasting. First, this paper proposes a multivariate intermittent time series forecasting method based on a Bayesian graph neural network. By leveraging the graph structure, this method captures structured information among series, while the incorporation of the Bayesian network enables the evaluation of the uncertainty within SPD sequences, thereby achieving confidence interval forecasting for intermittent time series. Then, this paper obtains a basic setting of reorder point and maximum stock on a three level warehousing architecture by minimizing excess inventory cost and shortage cost simultaneously. And a dynamic safety stock is obtained by fusing the forecasting interval into the basic safety stock setting. Finally, an actual spare parts dataset from a Chinese large rail transit manufacturing enterprise is employed for validation. The experimental results show that the proposed model not only gets higher SPD prediction accuracy, but also simultaneously improves inventory turnover and coverage, Furthermore, it verifies that more accurate demand forecasting is key to enhancing performance of safety stock.

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张嘉,郎祎平,毛文涛,等.融合间歇性需求预测的大型制造企业动态安全库存模型[J].控制与决策,2026,41(4):1154-1165

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-31
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-24
  • 出版日期: 2026-04-10
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