基于动态网络演化博弈的杀伤链系统效能涌现模型
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TP273

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国防基础科研计划项目(WDZC20265290402).


A dynamic network evolutionary game-based model for kill chain emergent system effectiveness
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    摘要:

    为刻画杀伤链系统的制胜机理, 针对杀伤链模型构建过程中各类作战装备性能如何向系统效能高效涌现的问题, 提出基于动态网络演化博弈的杀伤链系统效能涌现模型. 通过构建“微观-宏观”双层次研究框架, 揭示杀伤链中各装备间通过自组织、自适应从微观性能向宏观系统效能动态涌现的内在规律. 在微观层面, 构建单装备性能分析方法, 形成装备的初始行为决策偏好, 并将其与博弈理论相结合, 通过构建传播动力学方程刻画多装备性能组合的行为决策模型; 在宏观层面, 基于OODA作战环理论, 引入结构化Moran过程构建动态网络演化博弈规则的杀伤链效能模型, 通过动态马尔可夫链和演化博弈理论更新网络拓扑结构, 并设计节点度均值驱动的网络策略演化机理重构行为决策规则. 建立基于演化结果的效能涌现量化指标, 结合装备群体的策略选择, 分析杀伤链效能变化情况. 作战实例结果表明, 采用性能互补以及环境适配的装备集群能够促进杀伤链内在结构的动态演化, 并揭示系统效能的涌现规律, 研究结果有助于指挥员快速准确地把握杀伤链的制胜机理, 为作战决策提供有力支持.

    Abstract:

    To elucidate the success mechanisms of kill chain systems and address how heterogeneous individual platform-level performance efficiently emerge into system-level effectiveness during model construction, this study proposes a dynamic-network evolutionary-game framework for modeling effectiveness emergence in the kill chain. By establishing a dual-tier “micro-macro” analytical framework, we reveal the intrinsic laws by which individual platforms self-organize and adaptively coalesce into emergent systemic capabilities. At the micro level, we develop a single-platform performance assessment method to derive initial behavioral decision preferences and integrate these with game-theoretic constructs. Dynamics propagation equations are then formulated to characterize the decision-making behavior of multi-platform performance combinations. At the macro level, drawing on the OODA-loop paradigm, we introduce a structured Moran process to encode dynamic-network evolutionary-game rules governing kill chain effectiveness. Network topology is iteratively updated via time-varying Markov chains and evolutionary-game theory, and a mean-degree-driven strategy evolution mechanism is devised to refine behavioral decision rules. We further establish quantitative metrics for emergent effectiveness based on evolutionary outcomes and, in concert with collective strategy selections, analyse variations in kill chain performance. Operational case studies demonstrate that clusters of platforms with complementary capabilities and environmental adaptability foster the dynamic evolution of internal kill chain structures and uncover the emergent laws of system effectiveness. These findings enable commanders to rapidly and accurately grasp kill chain success mechanisms, thereby providing robust support for operational decision-making.

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史宇昂,黄炎焱,王凯生,等.基于动态网络演化博弈的杀伤链系统效能涌现模型[J].控制与决策,2026,41(8):2315-2331

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-13
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