基于增强时空Transformer的交通流预测方法
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1.嘉兴大学;2.浙江理工大学

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TP181

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Traffic flow prediction method based on enhanced spatio-temporal Transformer
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    摘要:

    精准预测路网交通流是保障智能交通系统高效运行的基础。针对现有方法存在难以有效建模交通流数据中复杂非线性时空动态依赖关系的问题,提出一种基于增强时空Transformer(ESTformer)的交通流预测方法。该方法设计多尺度时间Transformer和增强空间Transformer分别建模交通流量序列数据之间的时间依赖关系和不同节点之间的空间依赖关系。多尺度时间Transformer构建短期门控卷积网络捕获交通流数据中的短期时间依赖关系,并引入时间多头自注意力机制捕获长期动态时间依赖关系。增强空间Transformer通过对偶变换增强键向量的特征表达能力,利用时变掩码矩阵动态更新键向量,提高了模型同时捕获节点特征和边特征的能力。在4个真实交通流数据集上的测试结果表明,与基线方法相比,所提基于ESTformer的交通流预测方法具有更优越的预测性能。相比于13种基线方法在不同数据集上表现最佳者,所提方法在12个时间步上的平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别改进了1.14\%-3.88\%,0.36\%-1.78\%。

    Abstract:

    Accurate prediction of road network traffic flow is the foundation for ensuring the efficient operation of intelligent transportation systems. Aiming at the problem that existing methods are difficult to effectively model the complex nonlinear spatio-temporal dynamic dependency relationships in traffic flow data, a traffic flow prediction method based on enhanced spatio-temporal Transformer (ESTformer) is proposed. This method designs a multi-scale temporal Transformer and an enhanced spatial Transformer to respectively capture the temporal dependency relationships among traffic flow sequence data and the spatial dependency relationships among different nodes. The multi-scale time Transformer builds a short-term gated convolutional network to capture short-term time-dependent relationships in traffic flow data, and introduces a time multi-head self-attention mechanism to capture long-term dynamic time-dependent relationships. The enhanced space Transformer enhances the feature expression ability of the key vector through dual transformation and dynamically updates the key vector using time-varying mask matrix, thereby improving the model's ability to simultaneously capture node features and edge features. The test results on four real traffic flow datasets show that, compared with the baseline method, the proposed traffic flow prediction method based on ESTformer has superior prediction performance. Compared with the 13 baseline methods that performed best on different datasets, the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the proposed method improved by 1.14\%-3.88\% and 0.36\%-1.78\%, respectively, at 12 time steps.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-08
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-11
  • 录用日期:2026-02-13
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