融合公众关系网络和专家偏好信息可靠性的大群体应急决策方法研究
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江苏科技大学

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C934

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江苏省社会科学基金项目(24GLB006);国家社科基金项目(22BGL235);江苏高校“青蓝工程”(2024)


A study on large group emergency decision-making method integrating public relationship networks and expert preference reliability
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    摘要:

    针对公众知识存在结构性差异且难以量化其价值,决策专家偏好信息具有不确定性和模糊性且专家可靠性难以测度的问题,本文提出一种融合公众关系网络和专家偏好可靠性的大群体应急决策方法.首先,基于用户间的观点相似性建立公众关系网络,从博文知识价值和用户关系价值两方面因素构建公众知识价值测度模型,完成公众知识的价值测度;同时,针对现有概率语言术语集可靠度测度公式计算结果存在违背直觉的不足,提出一种新的概率语言术语集可靠度测度方法,充分考虑专家偏好信息可靠性和信任关系,对不同属性下专家可靠性进行测度,进而确定专家权重;其次,考虑属性排序的一致性与属性重要性差异计算融合系数,将通过公众知识和专家可靠性获得的属性权重进行融合获得综合属性权重,并运用聚合算子进行信息集结与方案排序;最后,以河北暴雨为应急决策案例验证方法的可行性,并进行灵敏度分析和对比分析验证本方法的稳定性与优越性.

    Abstract:

    To address the issues of structural differences in public knowledge, difficulty in quantifying its value, uncertainty and ambiguity in expert preferences, and challenges in measuring expert reliability, this paper proposes a large-group emergency decision-making method that integrates public relational networks with expert preference reliability. First, a public relationship network is constructed based on the similarity of user viewpoints. A public knowledge value measurement model for emergency decision-making is then developed by integrating two factors: the informational value of user-generated content and the relational value derived from user connections, thereby completing the valuation of public knowledge. Simultaneously, to address the counterintuitive outcomes of existing probabilistic linguistic term set reliability formulas, a novel reliability measurement method is introduced. This method comprehensively accounts for the reliability of expert preference information and the trust relationships among experts, enabling the measurement of expert reliability under varying attributes and the determination of corresponding expert weights. Next, a fusion coefficient is calculated by balancing attribute ranking consistency and differences in attribute importance. This coefficient integrates attribute weights derived from both public knowledge and expert reliability to obtain comprehensive attribute weights and uses aggregation operators for information aggregation and scheme ranking. Finally, the feasibility of the method was verified by taking the torrential rain in Hebei Province as an emergency decision-making case, and the stability and superiority of this method were verified through sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-17
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-30
  • 录用日期:2026-05-31
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