非等阶离散非线性灰色多变量预测模型及应用
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N941.5

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国家自然科学基金项目(72271120, 72571136, 72001107);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目规划基金项目(24YJA630087);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX25_0647).


Non-equal-order discrete nonlinear grey multivariable prediction model and its application
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    摘要:

    为进一步提高含分数阶的灰色多变量预测模型的拟合预测精度, 提出一种新的非等阶离散非线性灰色多变量预测模型(DLFDGM). 首先, 所提出模型通过两项核心设计实现突破: 为系统特征序列和各影响因素序列分别配置独立的分数阶累加阶数, 使得模型能够根据驱动项各自的数据波动性和记忆性特征自适应优化处理; 引入幂函数形式的非线性项$\beta k^{\delta}$, 以刻画驱动因素对预测结果影响的边际效应递减或规模加速等非线性动力学规律. 然后, 对所提出模型的建模机理、参数估计、递推时间响应式等进行研究, 并讨论模型参数几种特殊取值下的退化性质. 最后, 将所提出模型应用于江苏省港口货物吞吐量的预测问题. 实验结果显示: 所提出模型拟合精度为1.05%, 预测精度为1.91%, 拟合和预测的精度均显著优于对比模型.

    Abstract:

    To further improve the fitting and forecasting accuracy of high-order grey multivariable prediction models, this paper proposes a novel non-uniform fractional-order nonlinear grey multivariable prediction model (DLFDGM). This model achieves two key innovations: Independent fractional accumulation orders are assigned to the system characteristic sequence and each influencing factor sequence, enabling the model to adaptively optimize data processing according to the distinct fluctuation patterns and memory characteristics of each driving variable; A nonlinear term in the form of an exponential function, $\beta k^{\delta}$, is introduced to capture the marginal diminishing or scale acceleration effects of driving factors on the prediction outcomes, reflecting nonlinear dynamic behaviors. The modeling mechanism, parameter estimation, and time response equations of the proposed model are thoroughly investigated, along with discussions on its degenerative properties under specific parameter settings. The model is then applied to predict the cargo throughput of ports in Jiangsu Province, yielding a fitting accuracy of 1.05% and a forecasting accuracy of 1.91%. The results demonstrate that both fitting and prediction performance of the proposed model significantly outperform those of comparative models.

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党耀国,周心炎,王俊杰,等.非等阶离散非线性灰色多变量预测模型及应用[J].控制与决策,2026,41(8):2078-2088

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-13
  • 出版日期: 2026-08-10
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