非等阶离散非线性灰色多变量预测模型及应用
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南京航空航天大学

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N941.5

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国家自然科学基金(72271120,72571136,72001107),教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目规划基金(24YJA630087)


Non-Equal-Order Discrete Nonlinear Grey Multivariable Prediction Model and Its Application
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National Natural Science Foundation of China (72271120, 72571136, 72001107); General Program (Planning Fund) of Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education of China (24YJA630087)

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    摘要:

    当前灰色分数阶多变量模型多是系统项和驱动项取相同分数阶数,忽视了驱动项分数阶数变化对模型精度的影响.为了进一步提高含分数阶的灰色多变量预测模型的拟合预测精度,通过引入非等阶分数阶和非线性函数,提出一个新的非等阶离散非线性灰色多变量预测模型. 对该模型的建模机理、参数估计、递推时间响应式等进行研究,并讨论模型参数几种特殊取值下该模型的性质.最后将该模型应用于江苏省港口货物吞吐量的预测问题中,拟合精度1.05%,预测精度1.91%.结果表明:所提模型拟合和预测的精度均显著优于对比模型,验证了所提模型的适用性和有效性.

    Abstract:

    Most existing grey fractional-order multivariable models adopt the same fractional order for both the system term and the driving term, ignoring the impact of varying fractional orders of the driving term on model accuracy. To further improve the fitting and prediction accuracy of grey multivariable prediction models involving fractional orders, a novel non-equal-order discrete nonlinear grey multivariable prediction model is proposed by introducing non-equal fractional orders and nonlinear functions. The modeling mechanism, parameter estimation method and recursive time response formula of the proposed model are investigated, and the properties of the model under several special values of parameters are discussed. Finally, the proposed model is applied to predict the port cargo throughput of Jiangsu Province, with the fitting accuracy of 1.05% and the prediction accuracy of 1.91%. The results show that the fitting and prediction accuracy of the proposed model is significantly superior to that of the benchmark models, which verifies its applicability and effectiveness.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-12-30
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-11
  • 录用日期:2026-03-12
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