面向耦合多变量长期预测的因子感知倒置Transformer方法
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1.大连理工大学;2.上海航天设备制造总厂有限公司

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TP183

基金项目:

智能制造系统和机器人国家科技重大专项(2025ZD1602100),国家杰出青年科学基金(62125302),国家自然科学基金项目(62394344, 62503082),大连市科技人才创新支持计划(2022RG03), 中央高校基本科研业务费(DUTZD25108)


Factor-Aware Inverted Transformer for Long-Term Forecasting of Coupled Multivariate Time Series
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the National Science and Technology Major Project of China (Intelligent Manufacturing Systems and Robotics) under Grant 2025ZD1602100,the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China under Grant 62125302, Grant 62394344, Grant 62503082, the Sci-Tech Talent Innovation Support Program of Dalian under Grant 2022RG03, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant DUTZD25108

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    摘要:

    针对复杂工业过程的关键状态变量预测,多变量耦合与工况波动导致关联结构复杂、数据噪声显著.传统深度时序模型为刻画这类相关性往往引入较高计算开销,同时在多步预测中出现预测偏差随步长增大的现象,难以兼顾预测精度与计算效率.为此,本文提出一种基于因子感知机制的倒置Transformer时序预测模型(FA-iTransformer).该模型通过重构多变量时序的嵌入方式,采用变量维度序列化表示,将每个变量在时间窗口内的历史序列编码为基本单元,增强对变量动态特征的表征,有助于提取趋势变化与突变扰动等不同时间尺度信息;为降低跨变量交互建模的计算开销,引入基于潜在因子的低秩注意力机制,通过“聚合-交互-分发”三阶段信息传递,在因子空间提取共享模式并保留变量特异性,从而在维持全局相关性建模能力的同时提升计算效率与鲁棒性;最后,结合非自回归时序投影模块,实现长时序多步并行预测,减少多步滚动预测中的偏差传播.基于某钢铁厂高炉煤气数据集的实验结果表明,所提方法在预测精度与计算效率上均优于现有的主流时序预测模型,为复杂工业系统的在线监控与调度提供高效预测支撑.

    Abstract:

    Accurate prediction of key state variables in complex industrial processes is challenged by complicated inter-variable couplings, operating-condition fluctuations, and pronounced measurement noise. To capture such correlations, traditional deep time-series models often suffer from considerable computational burden; meanwhile, their multi-step forecasting performance commonly degrades as the prediction horizon increases, making it difficult to balance accuracy and efficiency. To address these issues, this paper proposes a factor-aware inverted Transformer for time-series forecasting (FA-iTransformer). First, the proposed model reformulates the embedding scheme for multivariate time series via variable-wise serialization, where the historical trajectory of each variable within a time window is encoded as a basic unit, strengthening the representation of variable dynamics and facilitating the extraction of multi-scale patterns such as trend variations and abrupt disturbances. Second, to reduce the cost of cross-variable interaction modeling, a low-rank attention mechanism based on latent factors is introduced. Through a three-stage “aggregate–interact–distribute” information propagation in the factor space, the model captures shared patterns while preserving variable-specific characteristics, improving computational efficiency and robustness without sacrificing global correlation modeling capability. Finally, a non-autoregressive temporal projection module is employed to enable parallel long-horizon multi-step prediction, mitigating bias propagation in rolling forecasting and reducing inference latency. Experiments on an industrial blast-furnace gas dataset demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms mainstream time-series forecasting models in both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency, and achieves higher efficiency in terms of model size and inference time, providing effective predictive support for online monitoring and scheduling of complex industrial systems.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-14
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-05
  • 录用日期:2026-05-05
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