基于因子感知倒置Transformer的工业多变量时序预测方法
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TP183

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智能制造系统和机器人国家科技重大专项(2025ZD1602100);国家自然科学基金项目(62125302, 62394344, 62503082);大连市科技人才创新支持计划项目(2022RG03);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(DUTZD25108).


Industrial multivariate time series forecasting method based on factor-aware inverted Transformer
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    摘要:

    针对复杂工业过程的关键状态变量预测, 多变量耦合与工况波动导致关联结构复杂. 现有时序预测模型在刻画此类相关性时, 不仅计算开销大, 且易陷入多步预测偏差随步长级联放大的困境, 难以实现精度与效率的平衡. 为此, 提出一种基于因子感知机制的倒置Transformer时序预测模型. 不同于对多变量信号进行混合建模的注意力架构, 所提模型的创新在于从数据底层重构了多变量的正交表征, 并在潜在空间内实现跨变量解耦. 该模型通过变量维度序列化表示, 将每个变量在时间窗口内的历史序列编码为基本单元, 增强对变量的动态表征; 为降低跨变量交互建模的计算开销, 引入基于潜在因子的低秩注意力机制, 从而在维持全局相关性建模能力的同时提升计算效率与鲁棒性; 结合非自回归时序投影模块, 实现长时序多步并行预测, 减少多步预测中的偏差传播. 实验结果表明, 所提方法在预测精度与计算效率上均优于现有的时序预测模型, 为复杂工业系统的在线监控与调度提供高效预测支撑.

    Abstract:

    In the prediction of key state variables for complex industrial processes, multivariable couplings and operating-condition fluctuations lead to complicated correlation structures. Existing time-series forecasting models, when modeling such correlations, not only incur high computational cost but also tend to suffer from the cascade amplification of prediction errors as the forecasting horizon increases, making it difficult to achieve a balance between prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. To address these issues, this paper proposes a factor-aware inverted Transformer time-series forecasting model. Different from attention-based architectures that model multivariable signals jointly, the key innovation of the proposed method lies in reconstructing the orthogonal representation of multivariable data at the foundation data level and realizing cross-variable decoupling in the latent space. Specifically, the model adopts a variable-wise serialization scheme, where the historical sequence of each variable within a time window is encoded as a basic unit, thereby enhancing the dynamic representation of individual variables. To reduce the computational cost of cross-variable interaction modeling, a latent-factor-based low-rank attention mechanism is further introduced, which improves computational efficiency and robustness while preserving the capability of global correlation modeling. Finally, a non-autoregressive temporal projection module is integrated to enable parallel long-horizon multi-step forecasting, reducing bias propagation in multi-step forecasting. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing time-series forecasting models in both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency, providing efficient predictive support for the online monitoring and scheduling of complex industrial systems.

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刘世俊,朱振镝,张硕华,等.基于因子感知倒置Transformer的工业多变量时序预测方法[J].控制与决策,2026,41(9):2400-2410

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-20
  • 出版日期: 2026-09-10
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