基于改进多属性效用理论的杀伤网最优路径求解方法
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1.空军工程大学;2.中国人民解放军93128部队;3.中国人民解放军93184部队

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TP273

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西安市青年人才托举计划


An Optimal Path Solution Method for Kill Nets Based on an Improved Multi-Attribute Utility Theory
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    摘要:

    针对现有杀伤路径推荐方法在多属性权衡、F2T2EA流程约束、实时求解和网络韧性评估方面的不足,提出一种基于改进多属性效用理论(MAUT)的杀伤网最优路径求解方法。依据“发现-定位-跟踪-瞄准-交战-评估”流程构建杀伤网有向图模型,建立由执行时间、成功概率、资源消耗、风险水平和路径韧性组成的评价体系;引入归一化效用、非线性偏好函数和韧性效用,表征不同场景下的决策偏好。采用深度优先搜索枚举满足流程约束和可靠性硬约束的候选路径,并逐一计算综合效用;同时以Top-K排序剪枝作为大规模场景下的近似加速策略。防空反导场景实验生成72条有效路径,四属性等权重下最优效用为0.7734;引入韧性效用后最优路径发生切换,扰动替代能力由0.7531提高至0.7545。节点和链路扰动实验表明,C2_Center_7为关键单点瓶颈;10000次蒙特卡洛模拟的成功概率估计误差为0.00042。结果表明,该方法可支持多属性路径优选,并为识别薄弱环节和配置冗余链路提供量化依据。

    Abstract:

    To address the limitations of existing kill-path recommendation methods in multi-attribute trade-off, F2T2EA process constraints, real-time solution, and network resilience evaluation, an optimal kill-net path solution method based on improved multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) is proposed. A directed kill-net model is constructed according to the Find-Fix-Track-Target-Engage-Assess process, and an evaluation system including execution time, success probability, resource consumption, risk level, and path resilience is established. Normalized utilities, nonlinear preference functions, and resilience utility are introduced to characterize decision preferences under different scenarios. Depth-first search is used to enumerate candidate paths satisfying process constraints and reliability constraints, and their comprehensive utilities are evaluated one by one. Meanwhile, Top-K ranking pruning is adopted as an approximate acceleration strategy for large-scale scenarios. In an air-defense scenario, 72 feasible paths are generated, and the optimal utility under equal four-attribute weights is 0.7734. After resilience utility is introduced, the optimal path changes, and disturbance substitution capability increases from 0.7531 to 0.7545. Node and link disturbance experiments show that C2_Center_7 is a key single-point bottleneck. The estimation error of success probability is 0.00042 with 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that the proposed method supports multi-attribute path selection and provides quantitative evidence for identifying weak links and configuring redundant links.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-10
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-02
  • 录用日期:2026-06-03
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