考虑数据缺失的聚合温控负荷微电网优化调度方法
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武汉大学

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TM 715

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国家自然科学基金项目(62373290)


Optimal Scheduling of Microgrids with Aggregated Thermostatically Controlled Loads Considering Missing Data
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    温控负荷(Thermostatically Controlled Loads, TCL)作为典型柔性负荷资源,可参与微电网需求响应并促进可再生能源消纳。然而,实际运行中受传感器故障、通信异常等因素影响,TCL能耗数据存在缺失问题,导致负荷特性辨识失准,并进一步影响聚合建模及微电网优化调度的准确性。针对上述问题,提出一种基于多特征融合的改进复制粘贴法(Improved Copy-Paste Imputation, ICPI),综合周内特征、季节特征、极值特征及负荷曲线相关性构建复合相似性系数,实现缺失TCL能耗数据的精准重构。在此基础上,建立聚合TCL虚拟电池模型,并将重构数据引入微电网优化调度模型,实现数据重构、负荷聚合建模与优化调度的协同分析。仿真结果表明,所提ICPI方法在平均绝对百分比误差和归一化均方根误差指标下均优于对比方法,能够有效降低数据缺失对微电网调度结果的影响,提高系统运行经济性与稳定性,为不完整数据条件下柔性负荷参与微电网优化调度提供了一种有效方法。

    Abstract:

    Thermostatically Controlled Load (TCL) is an important flexible resource that can participate in microgrid demand response and facilitate renewable energy integration. However, missing TCL energy consumption data caused by sensor failures, communication interruptions, and other operational uncertainties may lead to inaccurate load characteristic identification, thereby reducing the accuracy of aggregated modeling and optimal microgrid scheduling. To address this issue, an Improved Copy-Paste Imputation (ICPI) method based on multi-feature fusion is proposed. The proposed method reconstructs missing TCL energy consumption data by establishing a composite similarity coefficient that integrates weekly characteristics, seasonal characteristics, extreme-value characteristics, and load profile correlation. Based on the reconstructed data, an aggregated TCL virtual battery model is developed and incorporated into a microgrid optimal scheduling framework, achieving coordinated data reconstruction, load aggregation modeling, and scheduling optimization. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed ICPI method outperforms conventional imputation approaches in terms of both mean absolute percentage error and normalized root mean square error. Moreover, the reconstructed data effectively mitigate the adverse effects of missing data on microgrid scheduling, thereby improving the economic performance and operational stability of the system. The proposed framework provides an effective solution for integrating flexible loads into optimal microgrid scheduling under incomplete data conditions.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-11
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-22
  • 录用日期:2026-07-22
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