考虑用户未来用气需求不确定性的天然气管输储运联合分布鲁棒优化
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1.中国石油大学(北京);2.温江柳台大道555号

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C935;TE8

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国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(No.72271244)


Distributionally Robust Optimization of Integrated Natural Gas Pipeline Transportation and Storage under Future Demand Uncertainty
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    摘要:

    在全国一张网建设背景下,管网运营方需统筹管道运输与储气库注采,保障高峰供气。针对不同类型用户需求季节特征差异大、未来实际需求可能偏离预测的问题,本文构建考虑用户需求不确定性的天然气管输储运联合分布鲁棒优化框架。首先,采用FEDformer预测城燃、工业、发电和化工用户月度需求,基于历史相对预测残差进行Bootstrap重采样和情景聚类,构造未来需求经验分布。其次,以该分布为中心构造Wasserstein模糊集,建立多期管输储运联合分布鲁棒优化模型,统筹确定管输与储气库注采、储气方案。最后,通过拉格朗日对偶将模型转化为混合整数线性规划,并采用Gurobi求解。数值实验表明,FEDformer平均MAPE为3.58%,较9种对比模型降低10.74%—54.03%;五类供需情境下,所提模型缺供量均为最低,较确定性优化总成本降低0.40至2.42亿元、缺供量降低64.58%至100%,且在需求波动情境下总成本低于随机、传统鲁棒和区间鲁棒优化。

    Abstract:

    As China continues to develop a unified national gas pipeline network, operators must coordinate pipeline flows with underground gas storage (UGS) injection and withdrawal to ensure peak-period gas supply. To address heterogeneous seasonal demand patterns across user types and deviations of realized demand from forecasts, this study develops a distributionally robust optimization framework for integrated natural gas transmission and storage operations under demand uncertainty. First, FEDformer is used to forecast monthly demand for city-gas, industrial, power-generation, and chemical users. Historical relative forecast residuals are then resampled using the Bootstrap method and clustered to construct an empirical distribution of future demand. Second, a Wasserstein ambiguity set centered on this distribution is used to formulate a multi-period distributionally robust optimization model that jointly determines pipeline flows and UGS injection, withdrawal, and inventory plans. Finally, the model is reformulated as a mixed-integer linear program through Lagrangian duality and solved using Gurobi. Numerical experiments show that FEDformer achieves an average MAPE of 3.58%, 10.74–54.03% lower than that of nine benchmark models. Across five supply–demand scenarios, the proposed model achieves the lowest or tied-lowest unmet demand, while reducing total cost by CNY 40–242 million and unmet demand by 64.58–100% relative to deterministic optimization. Under demand-fluctuation scenarios, it also yields lower total costs than stochastic, conventional robust, and interval robust optimization.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-08-17
  • 最后修改日期:2026-09-30
  • 录用日期:2026-10-03
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